Does every per-projection-band readout (intervals.BANDS: 0,2,4,6,9,12,16,21) average two pre-kickoff cells whose bias or coverage has opposite sign?

Owner lane: Not recorded

Question

Does every per-projection-band readout (intervals.BANDS: 0,2,4,6,9,12,16,21) average two pre-kickoff cells whose bias or coverage has opposite sign?

Prediction

Frozen 2026-09-26T2319Z before scoring: S2 (played/dnp) fires in every band with >=30 dnp rows; S4 (game total) fires on E1 in >=3 bands; S1 (position) in 1-3 bands; S3 (opponent) in 0-2 bands; 'every per-tier readout' FALSE.

Finding and verdict

H-149 AS STATED IS REFUTED on the frozen bar: outside the P(play) mixture at the bottom two bands, 0 of 72 band x {position, opponent, game total} x endpoint cells shows two opposite-sign cells at Bonferroni-96, discovery or held-out. 'Every per-tier readout' is false. Prediction: S2 partly right (bands 0-1, not every band: dnp rows vanish above 6 projected points), S4 WRONG (0 not >=3), S1 WRONG (0 not 1-3), S3 right (0), 'every' right (FALSE). THE VERSION THE DATA CARRIES: the band readout hides the game total, and above 9 projected points it hides more than it shows -- held-out between-tercile RMS 1.2-2.7 pts against band means of -0.67 to -2.26. The composition is one-sided pooled across positions (low team total over-projected 1.5-7.8 pts, high near zero) and opposite-signed within QB (both windows) and RB (held-out only). Opponent-allowed adds nothing once the team total is in (held-out -0.04 +-0.13).

Reasoning

The forecast responds to the game total at ~6% of football's slope (H-159). Pooling by projected points mixes game environments; the pooled band mean is then mostly the mix weight of low-total games, not a property of the tier.

Next action

Owner of H-159 (serving): confirm the per-SD slope on 2026 weeks 1-4 (playermodel-live, WED) before any band correction is considered; the band table should be keyed on (band, game-total tercile) only if that confirmation holds. No new hypothesis filed: this is H-159's mechanism seen through the band readout.