27 Sep 2026 · 10:06 AM MTUpdated…
Authored research record

Research output

← All research outputs

s-observationFinding recorded

Does the original player-count EWMA contrast survive an exact replica on current production code?

Owner lane: Not recorded

Question

Does the original player-count EWMA contrast survive an exact replica on current production code?

Prediction

Replica is exact. P pooled fantasy-point MAE difference is between -0.008 and +0.004; all family-corrected endpoint intervals contain zero.

Finding and verdict

MEASURED NOTHING about EWMA accuracy; replica control FAILED. H-021 OPEN, blocked on model-level identity despite H6 green.

Source provenance and publication scope

Owned research record: research/scientist/experiments/2026-09-24T1019Z-h021-refinement.json

This public reading view includes authored question, finding, review, reasoning and next action fields. Raw measurements, commands, logs and local paths are withheld. The record ID clock is not proof of completion or deployment.