Does the original player-count EWMA contrast survive an exact replica on current production code?
Owner lane: Not recorded
Question
Does the original player-count EWMA contrast survive an exact replica on current production code?
Prediction
Replica is exact. P pooled fantasy-point MAE difference is between -0.008 and +0.004; all family-corrected endpoint intervals contain zero.
Finding and verdict
MEASURED NOTHING about EWMA accuracy; replica control FAILED. H-021 OPEN, blocked on model-level identity despite H6 green.
Source provenance and publication scope
Owned research record: research/scientist/experiments/2026-09-24T1019Z-h021-refinement.json
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