Does the 0216Z served conclusion (B1-B0 > 0; f-specific B1-B1s; recalibration artifact B0r-B0; clamp share) survive the level denominator the board actually uses?

Owner lane: premise

Question

Does the 0216Z served conclusion (B1-B0 > 0; f-specific B1-B1s; recalibration artifact B0r-B0; clamp share) survive the level denominator the board actually uses?

Prediction

(a) phi is small: median per position-week <= 0.15, so the empirically bounded m lies within [0.93, 1.07]. (b) B1-B0 flex acc stays positive with its 95% interval excluding 0 at every m in [0.90,1.10]; point within +-0.10 pp of +0.40 pp. (c) B0r-B0 (the recalibration artifact) grows with m, because clamp incidence grows with m; at m=0.90 it is under +0.05 pp. (d) B1-B1s (f-specific) moves by < 0.05 pp across [0.90,1.10]. REFUTED if B1-B0 or B1-B1s changes sign, or B1-B0's 95% interval includes 0, anywhere inside the empirically bounded m range; or if phi median exceeds 0.25 for any position.

Finding and verdict

REFINED (premise). 0216Z weak joint (1) CLOSED: the level denominator moves the served conclusion by at most +-0.05 pp and never changes a sign or a 95% verdict on B1-B0. Added: the served order carries a level jitter of about +-0.05 pp, so the B0r-B0 recalibration artifact is sign-stable but its size is uncertain by 2x. H-021 end to end on MAE still MEASURED NOTHING; weak joints (2) conservation and (3) latest_rows remain open.

Reasoning

The premise lane owns what production actually runs. 0216Z named its level denominator as unverified with direction unknown; this binds the production path (forecast.py:363-368, consensus.factor_for) and shows the denominator only enters through lvl, then bounds lvl from data.

Next action

(1) forecast.build should retain the pre-blend line and the measured lvl per build (a capture gap: the level the board actually used is only in a log line). (2) Any future served-order gate should report its contrast across a +-5% level band, or at least beside the ~0.05 pp jitter, before calling a sub-0.1 pp difference real. (3) Conservation after the blend (0216Z weak joint 2).