The served 80% band (intervals.shipped_band on SHIPPED_CURVE) was fitted on the UNBLENDED walk-forward centre and is served around the 40%-FantasyPros-blended centre. Does that centre mismatch cost the band calibration, and would fitting the band on the blended centre fix it?

Owner lane: calibration

Question

The served 80% band (intervals.shipped_band on SHIPPED_CURVE) was fitted on the UNBLENDED walk-forward centre and is served around the 40%-FantasyPros-blended centre. Does that centre mismatch cost the band calibration, and would fitting the band on the blended centre fix it?

Prediction

Frozen in the runner docstring before any run: nil on the primary, |d cover80| < 0.01 and |d pinball| < 1 percent; any real gap in the staleness control, not the centre. Refuted if |d pinball| >= 1 percent with CI excluding it.

Finding and verdict

TESTED. The centre mismatch H-184 names is real in code and costs the band nothing: serving SHIPPED_CURVE around the blended centre IMPROVES quantile loss by [-0.0417, -0.0516, -0.0315] pts (2025, held out) and [-0.0487, -0.0652, -0.0345] (2024), and refitting the curve on the blended centre adds nothing ([0.0013, -0.0053, 0.0076]). What remains is the curve's own shape: on 2025 it covers 0.869 against 0.80, the lower tail at 0.052 strict / 0.373 weak (zero atom), the upper at 0.079 strict against 0.10 -- the ceiling sits slightly high, and that is the next question, not the centre.

Reasoning

Settles H-184's band clause before any prop is priced off the board centre (RANKED #40 asked for exactly that). Its ledger clause is stale at HEAD; its P(play) clause is H-180's.

Next action

(1) The ceiling's strict exceedance is 0.079/0.081 against 0.10 in two seasons, U and B centres alike -- a ceiling-only refit question for this lane. (2) Grade the served RB/WR/TE SIM band, which replaced SHIPPED_CURVE on 09-23, from a pre-kickoff filing once week 3+ settles: it has no history to walk forward. (3) Weeks 1-2 of the live ledger grade the retired constant band; any scorecard/AAR coverage number off them should say so.