Review of 2026-09-23T1848Z-h159-total-slope

Owner lane: Not recorded

Finding and verdict

WEAKENED

Review scope

SPLIT. UPHELD: the primary claim (E1 carried 0.38, E2 pooled residual +0.082/pt, CI excludes 0 at every position and every season) reproduces byte-identically and survives the level-control, the p_play>=0.9 selection restriction and a correctly split two-sided Bonferroni-26. DOES NOT SURVIVE AS WORDED: the E3 'mix signal' sentence (fixed ITT WR +0.047, RB -0.029). Only WR keeps a CI excluding 0 under a properly split Bonferroni-26 and under the within-season repeat; RB, QB, TE and pooled do not. The record's 'Bonf-26' interval is mislabelled (it is a two-sided Bonferroni-13). Also: 'the board' is the walk-forward path; equality with the served row is asserted, not measured.

Next action

(1) Relabel the record's Bonf-26 as Bonf-13-two-sided in any quote; quote E3 as 'WR positive at fixed ITT; RB/QB/TE not distinguishable from 0 under the corrected family'. (2) A served-row replay of E1/E2 (season.matchup_factors, H-158's role-window gap) before saying 'the board'. (3) The defence-side attribution the record left open needs the matched-both-ball design, not this one.