27 Sep 2026 · 10:06 AM MTUpdated…
Authored research record

Research output

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marketFinding recorded

Do the mandatory invariants permit a gradeable market comparison on this checkout?

Owner lane: Not recorded

Question

Do the mandatory invariants permit a gradeable market comparison on this checkout?

Prediction

The standing H8 physical-row-order invariant will fail; if it does, no new market-versus-model forecast comparison will be scored.

Finding and verdict

STOPPED: H8 VIOLATED; no market hypothesis tested

Reasoning

The mandatory premeasurement gate failed. This is a repeat of the already documented H-274/BLOCKED.md defect, not a new market effect. H-153 was returned OPEN because it concerns player volume outside this lane.

Next action

After H8 clears, bind a market measurement to issued game_bets predictions and outcomes or to executable wager and close contracts; do not infer an edge from forecast accuracy.

Source provenance and publication scope

Owned research record: research/scientist/experiments/2026-09-26T1916Z-market-h8-stop.json

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