Is the served board's QB1 per team last season's starter rather than the published depth chart's QB1?

Owner lane: forecast

Question

Is the served board's QB1 per team last season's starter rather than the published depth chart's QB1?

Prediction

Frozen in research/scientist/prereg/2026-09-23T0405Z-h173-board-qb1.md (sha256 8e8e143e...54e5) before any comparison ran: E1 (board QB1 != chart QB1, week 3, chart QB1 not Out) <= 2; E2 (board QB1 == 2025 attempts leader AND != chart QB1) = 0; E3 (board QB1 != 2026 week-2 attempts leader) <= 3. Filed claim predicts E2 >= 3.

Finding and verdict

H-173 AS FILED IS REFUTED IN SIZE AND WRONG IN MECHANISM, WITH A NARROWER REAL DEFECT UNDERNEATH. The board matches the published chart QB1 on 30 of 32 teams and follows the chart over last season's starter on 5 of the 7 teams where they differ. The 2 misses are both artefacts of the MIN_LEAGUE_WEEKS=3 hold serving 2025 state into week 3: a chart QB1 missing from the universe (CLE) and a cross-team 2025 snap share tripping chart_buries_starter (MIA, rank 3 served 28.8 attempts against the starter's 0.96). Both should clear at the served-season flip after week 3 is ingested; that is a prediction, not a measurement.

Reasoning

Checked because the most valuable slot on the board was alleged to be named off last season, and the filed claim had no rows behind it.

Next action

Re-run h173_board_qb1.py on the first board built after week 3 is ingested (~2026-09-29): predict board_eq_DC1 >= 31/32, Watson present on CLE, Cook not QB1 on MIA. Allocation lane: chart_buries_starter should not read an l3 accrued on another team or in another season; that is its layer, not this lane's. Score E3 against week-3 actual starters after 09-28.