When a starting QB carries a designation, does forecast.build conserve the TEAM's throwing volume (attempts, yards, TDs) it serves when nobody is designated? H-130 names the D-76 market anchor; at the release config (PW_MARKET_ON=0) latest_rows withholds the market (H-071), so the anchor site is not entered and what can be discarded is the room level lines_for reconciled -- anchored when the market is on, fitted when it is off. The mixing code is the same either way.

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Question

When a starting QB carries a designation, does forecast.build conserve the TEAM's throwing volume (attempts, yards, TDs) it serves when nobody is designated? H-130 names the D-76 market anchor; at the release config (PW_MARKET_ON=0) latest_rows withholds the market (H-071), so the anchor site is not entered and what can be discarded is the room level lines_for reconciled -- anchored when the market is on, fitted when it is off. The mixing code is the same either way.

Prediction

OUT: k=0 retained QB-room attempts in [0.85, 1.10]; k=1 in [0.25, 0.50]; k=2 in [0.60, 0.85]; k>=3 in [0.88, 1.00) with median strictly below 0.995. Q: k=0 in [0.90, 1.02]; k>=1 median in [0.88, 0.995) through week 18. Receiving yards/TDs track QB-room yards/TDs within 0.01. Control dispersion about the common D-27 factor < 0.002. Football reference 0.93-1.03. REFUTED if OUT k=1 median > 0.80 or Q k>=3 median >= 0.995.

Finding and verdict

H-130 REFINED AND SUPPORTED on the production builder, stated more broadly than it was filed: forecast.build discards team QB-room volume for any team whose starter carries a curve designation, market or no market. Out: 100% of the room in the designated week (7 of 8 teams), 68% at k=1, 28% at k=2, 8.6% every week after. Questionable: 8.6% every remaining week. Football keeps 97% [95%, 99%] of a team's attempts when its QB1 sits. Receivers inherit the k>=1 discard through D-25 clause 3. 7 of 8 preregistered intervals held; the k=0 interval FAILED (predicted 0.85-1.10, observed 0.000) because the premise that a backup is promoted was false -- there is no backup on the board -- and the OUT control-dispersion threshold FAILED (0.0053 vs 0.002). Live only once designations reach the build (H-227, H-245 still OPEN).