Which market-layer quantities does the red H8 invariant actually bind, and what is the constraint on grading them once H8 is set aside?

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Question

Which market-layer quantities does the red H8 invariant actually bind, and what is the constraint on grading them once H8 is set aside?

Prediction

Written after the static import trace (part A) and before parts B-E ran; not externally receipted. H8 does not bind any market-grain quantity: the published margin/total producers (teamstate, gametotal) and the CLV instrument (clv.py via chain-report.collect) never load playerweek.efficiency, and an own-path physical reorder of games_raw moves 0 of their outputs. If any market output moves under the reorder, or efficiency loads at runtime, sol's global stop stands for that quantity.

Finding and verdict

REFINED: sol's stop was correct as a gate and too wide as a scope. H8 binds ZERO market-grain quantities: the published game margin/total, the wagers decide-week writes and the CLV instrument on chain-report never load efficiency.fit, and a physical reorder of the one table they read moves 0 of 2,911 outputs while a +7 score perturbation moves 2,128. The only market-adjacent path H8 reaches is player-prop pricing (aar/playermodel), and there are no prop wagers; s-observation (commit 420e3b6a) already bounded that path's walk-forward MAE at 0.0003 pts. The binding constraint on grading the market layer is not H8, it is VINTAGE: all 33 game_bets rows that currently carry a close and an outcome were written after kickoff (frozen_at_reliable false); the first pre-kickoff locked rows (30, week 3) grade after 2026-09-28.

Reasoning

sol's next step was 'after H8 clears, bind a market measurement to issued game_bets'. That waits on H-274 for no reason. Grading issued game_bets or wagers is a join; H8 cannot enter it. What the grade does need is rows issued before kickoff, which the append-only store began producing on 09-25.

Next action

Grade the market layer from pre-kickoff locks only (lock IN ('WED','SAT'), frozen_at < kickoff): 30 rows after week 3 settles, ~32 per week after. Do not wait on H8 for any market grain question; H8 still blocks player-prop pricing refits.