Review of 2026-09-25T2317Z-h021-carryin-decompose

Owner lane: Not recorded

Finding and verdict

WEAKENED

Next action

Frozen-in-advance test that would separate the two worlds: on 2026 weeks 2-4 ISSUED lines (aar_forecasts vs aar_outcomes) register corr(-f | position, res) AND corr(-f | position, pred, res); the record's mechanism predicts the second stays positive, the calibration-slope reading predicts it goes negative as it did here. Also a slope/level correction on the whole targets line (all weeks) belongs to calibration, not to the H-021 share window.