27 Sep 2026 · 12:51 PM MTUpdated…
Accuracy, transcripts, allowance

Status

Executive reports

Each executive owns and dates their own account. Worker markers and executive follow-up appear below with their own source times.

Codex report

Updated Sep 27, 12:24 PM MT
2Verified outcomes
1Queued commitments
2Verified past 24h

Executive deliveries tracked below, including checks and rejected research candidates; these are not all repaired defects or product gains. Shared review belongs to the delivery owner. Full audit list ↗

Keep the useful machine operating while closing the audit gaps.

Working on
Finish owned audit repairs, make employee work visible, and keep forecasts useful while the common world-model path is built.
Why
A warning, a board item or a completed agent is not proof that the owner received a repaired product. The next work must connect a real defect to an executor and a live acceptance check.
Verified progress
Verified 113 cold reports in personal Drive with readback and restore proof, then recovered 49.973 GiB of observed disk space. Independently checked the current Week 4 forecast: its modeled inputs come from 2026 Weeks 1–3, so the historical stale-input finding does not call for a current repair. Accepted the first management cycle's 13 real reviews, 899-byte coaching consumption and the live H-194 status correction; coverage and grade calibration remain open.
Next
Complete remaining audit repairs with execution receipts, expose employee creations and management outcomes to the owner, and test forecast changes against the served release before promotion.
Contribution to the vision
Reliable storage and honest forecast provenance keep today's product usable. Attributed employee work and measured candidate decisions move the business toward a trustworthy NFL world model with less owner intervention.
Evidence and receipts

OPS-01 · 5ff6dd54 · Week 4 source check · coordination log 11:55 MT · LDR-03/04/05 acceptance · coordination log 11:55 MT

Claude report

Updated Sep 27, 12:40 PM MT
2Verified outcomes
1Queued commitments
2Verified past 24h

Executive deliveries tracked below, including checks and rejected research candidates; these are not all repaired defects or product gains. Shared review belongs to the delivery owner. Full audit list ↗

Make Sean's decisions and the employees' work flow through to results he can see.

Working on
Close the loop from owner decision and research finding to a measured change in the live product, and grade every employee's real output daily.
Why
Sean approved 30 items on Friday and 12 never reached a worker because of a selection bug I introduced. Research had produced 69 findings with 0 in the served model. Activity was high and delivered value was not visible.
Verified progress
Fixed the Decide selection bug so the 12 stuck approvals reach workers (Codex-accepted b2ac949b), and every answered card now shows what happened. Checked the 15 'done' approvals: 12 delivered, 3 reopened with exact gaps. Ran the first complete research-to-live cycle on the served fantasy model: H-030 was rejected on held-out 2024-25 (-0.008 MAE, interval spans 0), and weekly follow-up is scheduled. 47 employees now have stable IDs and per-run receipts. The daily 06:40 manager review graded 13 employees for $0.73 and rejected a planted overclaim (both Codex-accepted). Fixed the podcast archive error, and Nimo uploads went from 0.24 to 6.4 MB/s.
Next
Repair the watchdog's missing-process-counts-as-success defect (OPS-04 act-d43019fd2e) and the fable lane's missing timeout. Pick the next served-model candidate with a real held-out signal. Check the manager's grade calibration against referee outcomes.
Contribution to the vision
A business where Sean decides and sees results. Employees are graded daily on real output, research findings reach the served product only through paired held-out tests, and negative results are kept as learning.
Evidence and receipts

LDR-02 · b2ac949b 62cb6c2d 950cea47 · O3 · 08ba39b0 6e081c56 · LDR-03 · 05e8f600 f6959966 · LDR-04/05 · e5a68376 4227eb21 76b7ba62 · Decide delivery check · 71ab61ef 7e3292e9 · Nimo upload · 21480806

Recent machine activity

Marker snapshot · Sun 12:50 MDT

Workers wrote these task markers in the last 15 minutes. A marker shows activity, not a completed result. See job outcomes and schedules · Audit repairs.

ExecutorReported workMarker time
build-w0unit 7 — picking an item (shard 0 of 8)12:50 MT
build-w1unit 4 — picking an item (shard 1 of 8)12:50 MT
build-w2unit 7 — picking an item (shard 2 of 8)12:39 MT
build-w5unit 1 — picking an item (shard 5 of 8)12:44 MT
build-w6unit 3 — picking an item (shard 6 of 8)12:40 MT

Executive follow-up

Executive reported · as of Sep 27, 12:24 PM MT

Queued · 2

Close remaining audit repairsAccountable: Codex executive
Executor: A worker must claim each bounded repair before it is shown as running

A finding without an executing repair leaves the product incomplete.

Next: Tie each accepted defect to a consumable queue entry, worker receipt and live check.

Evidence: ops/audits/PRIORITIZED-AUDIT-CURRENT.md; AGENTS.md rule 10
Complete management coverage and calibrationAccountable: Claude executive
Executor: No current worker witness established

The first review graded 13 employees, but four registry entries remain unwired and real grades still need calibration.

Next: Cover the remaining employees and compare grades against real defects and downstream improvement.

Evidence: LDR-03/04/05 independent acceptance, coordination log 11:55 MT

Verified · 4

Cold report offloadAccountable: Codex executive
Executor: Codex storage delegate · completed

113 reports archived and hash verified in Drive; one pilot restored after eviction. Observed local relief: 49.973 GiB.

Evidence: 5ff6dd54; coordination log 12:05 MT
Current Week 4 forecast sourceAccountable: Codex executive
Executor: Codex availability delegate · completed

Current modeled inputs use 2026 Weeks 1–3; no 2025 modeled source or current repair indicated.

Evidence: coordination log 11:55 MT
First management and junior review cycleAccountable: Claude executive; Codex acceptance
Executor: Claude delivery team · completed

13 portfolios graded; one 899-byte coaching card consumed; H-194 WAITING corrected live. Coverage and calibration are queued above.

Evidence: e5a68376, 4227eb21, 76b7ba62; coordination log 11:55 MT
H-030 forecast candidateAccountable: Claude executive
Executor: Claude O3 delivery · completed

Rejected after the held-out interval included zero; the served forecast stayed unchanged.

Evidence: research/o3/h030-decision.json; 6e081c56

Product and machine measures

Forecast performance

Winner accuracy

How often the issued forecast picked the winning team.

Full scorecard
Live · 2026
70.6%
▼ 2.7 pts 7d
17 games · as issued
Held-out · 2024–25
56.1%
· 0.0 since Sep 22
544 games · backtest 2024–25 (fit ≤2023)
Live − backtest +14.5 ptsDifferent seasons and sample sizes; this difference is not a model improvement.

Served v1.0 (fit ≤2025), v1.0.1-availability (fit ≤2025), as issued before kickoff · from wk 2

Build movement

Last 15 minutes

Read Sep 27 · 12:51 PM MT

Board 222 done · 22 (+1) open · plan 127/127 · chain 8/8 · gate open

Landed (11)

  • gate: heartbeat glob no longer treats data/heartbeats/retired/ as a job
  • PW-156: `pw read` (the news claim step) gets a cadence, and a safe one
  • PW-64: restore the desk roster card, orphaned by desks.py since PW-153
  • fable.sh: restore the hard timeout on its claude model call
  • OPS-04 act-d43019fd2e: gone process + no completion receipt is dead, not ok
  • PW-65: worker briefs now carry their own launchd job's charter

… and 5 more

Compared with Sep 27 · 12:35 PM MT.

Measured vs live

Forecast quality

Winner ↑ · error ↓
measuredactualgap
Winner correctn 17
56.1%· 0.0 since Sep 22
70.6%▼ 2.7 7d
+14.5
Marginn 17
96.7%· 0.0 since Sep 22
97.0%▲ 1.2 7d
+0.2
Totaln 17
23.3%· 0.0 since Sep 22
25.3%▼ 0.6 7d
+2.0
Team pointsn 34
33.6%· 0.0 since Sep 22
43.0%▲ 1.3 7d
+9.3
Pass yardsn 34
24.9%· 0.0 since Sep 22
18.3%▲ 0.8 7d
−6.6
Rush yardsn 34
32.9%· 0.0 since Sep 22
35.6%▲ 5.3 7d
+2.7
Fantasy pointsn 383
55.8%· 0.0 since Sep 22
65.9%▲ 0.8 7d
+10.1

Winner = % correct. Other rows: %error = mean |pred − actual| ÷ mean |actual|. Held-out: 2024–25 (fit ≤2023). Live: 2026 as issued. Read Sep 27 · 12:51 PM MT.

With vs without

Feature contribution

Green helps
B hypB liveQ hypQ live
Winner correct
0.0
+3.0
0.0
+3.0
Margin
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
+0.1
Total
−0.1
+0.2
−0.1
+0.1
Team points
0.0
+0.1
0.0
+0.1
Pass yards
−0.1
0.0
−0.1
0.0
Rush yards
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Fantasy points
0.0
−1.5
+0.1
+0.3

B = coaching decisions; Q = injury-report text. Test = backtest 2024–25 (fit ≤2023); live = 2026 wk 1–3 refits. News claims are withheld.

Podcast transcripts

T183,768 episodes
downloaded19,679 · 23%
transcribed1,700 · 2.0%
+444 24h · pace 444/day · done Mar 31, 2027
T2164,222 episodes
downloaded3,211 · 2%
transcribed657 · 0.4%
+0 24h · pace 444/day · done Apr 2, 2028
T3227,173 episodes
downloaded3,343 · 1%
transcribed1,999 · 0.9%
+0 24h · pace 444/day · done Aug 22, 2029

Pace = all tiers, last 24 h. Worked T1, then T2, then T3. Counts Sun Sep 27 12:46 PM MDT.

Research

Findings and adoption

69findings
6adopted
0live in served
26in review
See findings
In served v1.0hypactual
CP-H49 · trailing windows include last game
−0.352 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H65 · stop pricing all weeks on wk-1 market
−0.063 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H199 · kalman share leak removed
+0.040 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H6 · order-independent room sums
−0.006 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H43 · pass attempts weighted to recent
−0.071 att MAE
no live A/B
CP-H47 · DEF events from implied total
−0.178 DEF MAE
no live A/B
Adopted findings · live shadow vs servedhypactual
B13 · draft capital on thin history
+0.048 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.046 MAE, 136 rows, 3 wk [−0.296,+0.011]; backtest −0.011 · not promoted
B41 · draft + contract on thin history
+0.059 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.031 MAE, 136 rows, 3 wk [−0.210,+0.016]; backtest −0.030 · not promoted
Q-13 · Saturday attention → availability
−0.0030 Brier (P(play))
live shadow scores from week 4; backtest +0.0029 · not promoted
Q-14 · fame adds nothing (a null)
null: −0.005 pts, floor not cleared
nothing to serve
Q-19 · expert file leaks availability (control)
control passed: −0.020 Brier = contaminated
not servable: leak
XD-S07 · empirical null for the batteries
method: null sd 2.22 vs 1.00
not a model feature
H-030 · receiving shares: Poisson + attempts weight (O3 cycle)
−0.0242 FP MAE (D-212, 2025 only)
gain +0.053 MAE, 372 rows, 2 wk [−0.022,+0.130]; backtest +0.008 · not promoted

Σ hyp −0.38 FP MAE (4 rows) · Σ actual no live A/B

Hypotheses: docs/hypotheses.json · review incl. 9 L-07 · fixes: CHANGES-PROPOSED.md

Capacity

Weekly model allowance

Account-wide · projected from the last 24h
Claude44% remainingProjected out Oct 1 · ~1 PM MTRead Sep 27 · 12:44 PM MTHow estimated

11 quota points used over 24.0h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 8:59 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 0

Account-wide allowance; includes work outside Playerweek.

Codex66% remainingProjected out Sep 29 · ~11 AM MTRead Sep 27 · 12:51 PM MTHow estimated

34 quota points used over 23.9h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 3 · 12:15 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 2

gpt-6-sol: 2 completed runs · 2,336,533 recorded tokens in 24h

Account-wide Codex allowance. Direct account-status read; no model request.

Antigravity · Gemini models82.6% remainingInsufficient history for forecastRead Sep 27 · 12:51 PM MTHow estimated

Needs two readings at least 30 minutes apart in this reset window.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 7:29 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 22

Shared by Gemini Flash and Pro in Antigravity. Local scheduled starts also have a 15-minute cooldown. Gemini app/web usage is unknown here.

Antigravity · Claude and GPT models96.9% remainingNo measurable usage increaseRead Sep 27 · 12:51 PM MTHow estimated

0 quota points used over 23.9h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 11:19 PM MT.

Shared by Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet and GPT-OSS in Antigravity; separate from Claude Code and Codex.