Build / Status
27 Sep 2026 · 8:06 AM MTUpdated…
Accuracy, transcripts, allowance

Status

Forecast performance

Winner accuracy

How often the issued forecast picked the winning team.

Full scorecard
Live · 2026
70.6%
▼ 2.7 pts 7d
17 games · as issued
Held-out · 2024–25
56.1%
· 0.0 since Sep 22
544 games · backtest 2024–25 (fit ≤2023)
Live − backtest +14.5 ptsDifferent seasons and sample sizes; this difference is not a model improvement.

Served v1.0 (fit ≤2025), v1.0.1-availability (fit ≤2025), as issued before kickoff · from wk 2

Build movement

Last 15 minutes

Read Sep 27 · 8:06 AM MT

Board 215 done · 27 open · plan 127/127 · chain 8/8 · gate open

Landed (2)

  • referee: H-021 team-windows share-tree+opponent route UPHELD (replica control still exact on fresh data; G rec
  • Require executable ownership for active audit repair work

Compared with Sep 27 · 7:51 AM MT.

Measured vs live

Forecast quality

Winner ↑ · error ↓
measuredactualgap
Winner correctn 17
56.1%· 0.0 since Sep 22
70.6%▼ 2.7 7d
+14.5
Marginn 17
96.7%· 0.0 since Sep 22
97.0%▲ 1.2 7d
+0.2
Totaln 17
23.3%· 0.0 since Sep 22
25.3%▼ 0.6 7d
+2.0
Team pointsn 34
33.6%· 0.0 since Sep 22
43.0%▲ 1.3 7d
+9.3
Pass yardsn 34
24.9%· 0.0 since Sep 22
18.3%▲ 0.8 7d
−6.6
Rush yardsn 34
32.9%· 0.0 since Sep 22
35.6%▲ 5.3 7d
+2.7
Fantasy pointsn 383
55.8%· 0.0 since Sep 22
65.9%▲ 0.8 7d
+10.1

Winner = % correct. Other rows: %error = mean |pred − actual| ÷ mean |actual|. Held-out: 2024–25 (fit ≤2023). Live: 2026 as issued. Read Sep 27 · 8:06 AM MT.

With vs without

Feature contribution

Green helps
B hypB liveQ hypQ live
Winner correct
0.0
+3.0
0.0
+3.0
Margin
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
+0.1
Total
−0.1
+0.2
−0.1
+0.1
Team points
0.0
+0.1
0.0
+0.1
Pass yards
−0.1
0.0
−0.1
0.0
Rush yards
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Fantasy points
0.0
−1.5
+0.1
+0.3

B = coaching decisions; Q = injury-report text. Test = backtest 2024–25 (fit ≤2023); live = 2026 wk 1–3 refits. News claims are withheld.

Podcast transcripts

T183,768 episodes
downloaded17,107 · 20%
transcribed1,604 · 1.9%
+428 24h · pace 428/day · done Apr 7, 2027
T2164,222 episodes
downloaded3,280 · 2%
transcribed657 · 0.4%
+0 24h · pace 428/day · done Apr 23, 2028
T3227,173 episodes
downloaded3,343 · 1%
transcribed1,999 · 0.9%
+0 24h · pace 428/day · done Oct 1, 2029

Pace = all tiers, last 24 h. Worked T1, then T2, then T3. Counts Sun Sep 27 8:04 AM MDT.

Research

Findings and adoption

69findings
6adopted
0live in served
26in review
See findings
In served v1.0hypactual
CP-H49 · trailing windows include last game
−0.352 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H65 · stop pricing all weeks on wk-1 market
−0.063 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H199 · kalman share leak removed
+0.040 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H6 · order-independent room sums
−0.006 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H43 · pass attempts weighted to recent
−0.071 att MAE
no live A/B
CP-H47 · DEF events from implied total
−0.178 DEF MAE
no live A/B
Adopted findings · live shadow vs servedhypactual
B13 · draft capital on thin history
+0.048 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.046 MAE, 136 rows, 3 wk [−0.296,+0.011]; backtest −0.011 · not promoted
B41 · draft + contract on thin history
+0.059 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.031 MAE, 136 rows, 3 wk [−0.210,+0.016]; backtest −0.030 · not promoted
Q-13 · Saturday attention → availability
−0.0030 Brier (P(play))
live shadow scores from week 4; backtest +0.0029 · not promoted
Q-14 · fame adds nothing (a null)
null: −0.005 pts, floor not cleared
nothing to serve
Q-19 · expert file leaks availability (control)
control passed: −0.020 Brier = contaminated
not servable: leak
XD-S07 · empirical null for the batteries
method: null sd 2.22 vs 1.00
not a model feature

Σ hyp −0.38 FP MAE (4 rows) · Σ actual no live A/B

Hypotheses: docs/hypotheses.json · review incl. 9 L-07 · fixes: CHANGES-PROPOSED.md

Capacity

Weekly model allowance

Account-wide · projected from the last 24h
Claude52% remainingReset arrives first · Oct 1Read Sep 27 · 8:00 AM MTHow estimated

4 quota points used over 23.8h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 9:00 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 0

Account-wide allowance; includes work outside Playerweek.

Codex74% remainingProjected out Sep 29 · ~5 PM MTRead Sep 27 · 8:06 AM MTHow estimated

26 quota points used over 19.9h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 3 · 12:15 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 3

gpt-6-sol: 3 completed runs · 3,165,213 recorded tokens in 24h

Account-wide Codex allowance. Direct account-status read; no model request.

Antigravity · Gemini models84.2% remainingReset arrives first · Oct 1Read Sep 27 · 8:06 AM MTHow estimated

0.0965 quota points used over 0.5h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 7:29 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 6

Shared by Gemini Flash and Pro in Antigravity. Local scheduled starts also have a 15-minute cooldown. Gemini app/web usage is unknown here.

Antigravity · Claude and GPT models96.9% remainingNo measurable usage increaseRead Sep 27 · 8:06 AM MTHow estimated

0 quota points used over 23.9h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 11:19 PM MT.

Shared by Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet and GPT-OSS in Antigravity; separate from Claude Code and Codex.