27 Sep 2026 · 2:27 PM MTUpdated…
Accuracy, transcripts, allowance

Status

Executive reports

Each executive owns and dates their own account. Worker markers and executive follow-up appear below with their own source times.

Codex report

Updated Sep 27, 1:59 PM MT
26Assigned packages
2Completed

5 partial · 0 queued for dispatch · 22 assigned awaiting dispatch · current worker activity not verified by this tracker. Audit findings and leadership packages are separate scopes; some address related gaps. Pace is unavailable without complete acceptance timestamps. All 47 IDs and evidence ↗

Keep the useful machine operating while closing the audit gaps.

Working on
Two Sol-high repairs are dispatched: whole-game quality enforcement for promotion (CODE-1) and historical warehouse cutoff enforcement (DATA-01). A third worker is independently reviewing four Claude deliveries.
Why
The two repairs protect whether research changes are safe to promote and whether historical tests use only information available at the time. Owner assignment must turn into actual bounded execution.
Verified progress
Independent acceptance reviewed four Claude deliveries: CTRL-07 partial (12 detection tests, rendered producer recovery open); CODE-6 open (recursive gate self-test selection invalidates end-to-end proof); LDR-06 partial (private snapshots and 47 employee rows live, output links and independent visual decision flow open); R-03 partial (13 lane contracts pass, 0/82 records reached consumer intake, first graded link due September 28). The three already completed audit findings remain completed.
Next
Review the promotion and cutoff repair evidence, record independent acceptance results, and keep partial delivery open where recovery, scheduled execution or measured consumer use is still missing. Claude is reconciling duplicate readers; tonight's local compute window stays in force.
Contribution to the vision
A useful NFL world model depends on leakage-safe evaluation and quality-controlled improvements. Parallel repairs and independent acceptance move documented gaps toward trustworthy live products without stopping the machine.
Evidence and receipts

Accountability view · 4e703594 · Build movement visual · 923c677d · Board repair · 483675fd / 6f5361b2 · CODE-1 and DATA-01 · bounded workers dispatched this hourly review · CTRL-07 / CODE-6 / LDR-06 / R-03 · Codex independent acceptance 2026-09-27 13:59 MT

Claude report

Updated Sep 27, 2:13 PM MT
21Assigned packages
1Completed

8 partial · 0 queued for dispatch · 20 assigned awaiting dispatch · current worker activity not verified by this tracker. Audit findings and leadership packages are separate scopes; some address related gaps. Pace is unavailable without complete acceptance timestamps. All 47 IDs and evidence ↗

Make Sean's decisions and the employees' work flow through to results he can see.

Working on
Close the 20 unresolved audit and leadership IDs Codex assigned to Claude, each to its written acceptance, while keeping the served product running.
Why
Sean approved 30 items on Friday and 12 never reached a worker because of a selection bug I introduced. Research had produced 69 findings with 0 in the served model. Activity was high and delivered value was not visible.
Verified progress
Since 13:57: acceptance verdicts committed for CTRL-07/CODE-6/R-03 (c747928b) — CTRL-07 partial (12/12 required-field tests pass, rendered-producer recovery still unproven), CODE-6 open (recursive self-test selector needs repair before rerun), R-03 partial (13/13 lane tests pass, 0/82 consumer intake reached). LDR-05 done (a5e1580c): 8/8 junior observations graded, 1/8 false positive. LDR-04 partial (f78d6499): calibration is now measured and the result is negative — blind referee agreement was 11/24 on 24 judged records; registry coverage raised from a 32/44 projection to 44/47 ids. CTRL-02 delivered (b46a4adc): new incident_ledger.py assigns an owner/deadline to every watchdog alarm, 10/10 planted-failure tests pass, live on today's watchdog ticks with 0 open incidents. UX-01/UX-05/UX-06 done and live (ee27e8f8); ACTUAL-3/UX-04/UX-07 done and live-verified at 14:04 MT at 390px and 1440px (78ba0d3d, 06636402). MODEL-03 progress: served v1.0.1-availability replays exactly (21,264/21,264 rows across 3 activated generations), held-out MAE 3.54 [3.47, 3.62]. Also blocked destructive git (stash/reset --hard/clean/checkout of paths) across every session in the shared checkout after two worker stashes today pulled roughly 200 files of others' uncommitted work (0ef2162b).
Next
Wire CTRL-02's incident ledger into build-loop.sh's claim path (needs a spend decision — it adds model units per alarm), repair CODE-6's recursive test-selector before its next rerun, and close CTRL-07/R-03's remaining gaps (producer recovery, consumer intake). Next hourly report lists which close.
Contribution to the vision
A business where Sean decides and sees results. Employees are graded daily on real output, research findings reach the served product only through paired held-out tests, and negative results are kept as learning.
Evidence and receipts

CTRL-07/CODE-6/R-03 verdicts · c747928b · LDR-05 · a5e1580c · LDR-04 · f78d6499 · CTRL-02 · b46a4adc · UX-01/UX-05/UX-06 · ee27e8f8 · ACTUAL-3/UX-04/UX-07 · 78ba0d3d 06636402 · git-shared-tree-guard · 0ef2162b

Build movement

Priority and accepted progress

Audit findings + leadership packages

Prioritized audit · 40 findings

P0 · immediate operational or promotion threat0/2 accepted · 0 queued
P1 · current product correctness, recoverability or autonomous control2/27 accepted · 0 queued
P2 · important completeness/usability/resilience0/10 accepted · 0 queued
P3 · lower-impact or unverified observation0/1 accepted · 0 queued

0 queued across all 47 packages; current worker execution is unverified here. Priority shows the audit backlog, not which tasks workers are doing.

Accepted across all 47 packages

3of 47 verified complete
3 accepted13 partial31 other unresolved

Partial work remains open until its acceptance evidence is verified.

Recent machine activity

Marker snapshot · Sun 14:26 MDT

Workers wrote these task markers in the last 15 minutes. A marker shows activity, not a completed result. See job outcomes and schedules · Audit repairs.

ExecutorReported workMarker time
build-w0unit 7 — picking an item (shard 0 of 8)14:18 MT
build-w6unit 7 — picking an item (shard 6 of 8)14:26 MT

Executive follow-up

Executive reported · as of Sep 27, 12:24 PM MT

Queued · 2

Close remaining audit repairsAccountable: Codex executive
Executor: A worker must claim each bounded repair before it is shown as running

A finding without an executing repair leaves the product incomplete.

Next: Tie each accepted defect to a consumable queue entry, worker receipt and live check.

Evidence: ops/audits/PRIORITIZED-AUDIT-CURRENT.md; AGENTS.md rule 10
Complete management coverage and calibrationAccountable: Claude executive
Executor: No current worker witness established

The first review graded 13 employees, but four registry entries remain unwired and real grades still need calibration.

Next: Cover the remaining employees and compare grades against real defects and downstream improvement.

Evidence: LDR-03/04/05 independent acceptance, coordination log 11:55 MT

Verified · 4

Cold report offloadAccountable: Codex executive
Executor: Codex storage delegate · completed

113 reports archived and hash verified in Drive; one pilot restored after eviction. Observed local relief: 49.973 GiB.

Evidence: 5ff6dd54; coordination log 12:05 MT
Current Week 4 forecast sourceAccountable: Codex executive
Executor: Codex availability delegate · completed

Current modeled inputs use 2026 Weeks 1–3; no 2025 modeled source or current repair indicated.

Evidence: coordination log 11:55 MT
First management and junior review cycleAccountable: Claude executive; Codex acceptance
Executor: Claude delivery team · completed

13 portfolios graded; one 899-byte coaching card consumed; H-194 WAITING corrected live. Coverage and calibration are queued above.

Evidence: e5a68376, 4227eb21, 76b7ba62; coordination log 11:55 MT
H-030 forecast candidateAccountable: Claude executive
Executor: Claude O3 delivery · completed

Rejected after the held-out interval included zero; the served forecast stayed unchanged.

Evidence: research/o3/h030-decision.json; 6e081c56

Product and machine measures

Forecast performance

Winner accuracy

How often the issued forecast picked the winning team.

Full scorecard
Live · 2026
70.6%
▼ 2.7 pts 7d
17 games · as issued
Held-out · 2024–25
56.1%
· 0.0 since Sep 22
544 games · backtest 2024–25 (fit ≤2023)
Live − backtest +14.5 ptsDifferent seasons and sample sizes; this difference is not a model improvement.

Served v1.0 (fit ≤2025), v1.0.1-availability (fit ≤2025), as issued before kickoff · from wk 2

Measured vs live

Forecast quality

Winner ↑ · error ↓
measuredactualgap
Winner correctn 17
56.1%· 0.0 since Sep 22
70.6%▼ 2.7 7d
+14.5
Marginn 17
96.7%· 0.0 since Sep 22
97.0%▲ 1.2 7d
+0.2
Totaln 17
23.3%· 0.0 since Sep 22
25.3%▼ 0.6 7d
+2.0
Team pointsn 34
33.6%· 0.0 since Sep 22
43.0%▲ 1.3 7d
+9.3
Pass yardsn 34
24.9%· 0.0 since Sep 22
18.3%▲ 0.8 7d
−6.6
Rush yardsn 34
32.9%· 0.0 since Sep 22
35.6%▲ 5.3 7d
+2.7
Fantasy pointsn 383
55.8%· 0.0 since Sep 22
65.9%▲ 0.8 7d
+10.1

Winner = % correct. Other rows: %error = mean |pred − actual| ÷ mean |actual|. Held-out: 2024–25 (fit ≤2023). Live: 2026 as issued. Read Sep 27 · 2:27 PM MT.

With vs without

Feature contribution

Green helps
B hypB liveQ hypQ live
Winner correct
0.0
+3.0
0.0
+3.0
Margin
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
+0.1
Total
−0.1
+0.2
−0.1
+0.1
Team points
0.0
+0.1
0.0
+0.1
Pass yards
−0.1
0.0
−0.1
0.0
Rush yards
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Fantasy points
0.0
−1.5
+0.1
+0.3

B = coaching decisions; Q = injury-report text. Test = backtest 2024–25 (fit ≤2023); live = 2026 wk 1–3 refits. News claims are withheld.

Podcast transcripts

T183,768 episodes
downloaded20,980 · 25%
transcribed1,730 · 2.1%
+441 24h · pace 441/day · done Apr 1, 2027
T2164,222 episodes
downloaded3,211 · 2%
transcribed657 · 0.4%
+0 24h · pace 441/day · done Apr 6, 2028
T3227,173 episodes
downloaded3,343 · 1%
transcribed1,999 · 0.9%
+0 24h · pace 441/day · done Aug 30, 2029

Pace = all tiers, last 24 h. Worked T1, then T2, then T3. Counts Sun Sep 27 2:22 PM MDT.

Research

Findings and adoption

69findings
6adopted
0live in served
26in review
See findings
In served v1.0hypactual
CARD · served v1.0.1-availability-20260926 (certified)
held-out MAE 3.54 [3.47, 3.62] (2024-25, all rostered)
live: 0 settled yet, 6,723 pending; replay 21,264/21,264 exact; 2026-09-27
CP-H49 · trailing windows include last game
−0.352 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H65 · stop pricing all weeks on wk-1 market
−0.063 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H199 · kalman share leak removed
+0.040 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H6 · order-independent room sums
−0.006 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H43 · pass attempts weighted to recent
−0.071 att MAE
no live A/B
CP-H47 · DEF events from implied total
−0.178 DEF MAE
no live A/B
Adopted findings · live shadow vs servedhypactual
B13 · draft capital on thin history
+0.048 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.046 MAE, 136 rows, 3 wk [−0.296,+0.011]; backtest −0.011 · not promoted
B41 · draft + contract on thin history
+0.059 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.031 MAE, 136 rows, 3 wk [−0.210,+0.016]; backtest −0.030 · not promoted
Q-13 · Saturday attention → availability
−0.0030 Brier (P(play))
live shadow scores from week 4; backtest +0.0029 · not promoted
Q-14 · fame adds nothing (a null)
null: −0.005 pts, floor not cleared
nothing to serve
Q-19 · expert file leaks availability (control)
control passed: −0.020 Brier = contaminated
not servable: leak
XD-S07 · empirical null for the batteries
method: null sd 2.22 vs 1.00
not a model feature
H-030 · receiving shares: Poisson + attempts weight (O3 cycle)
−0.0242 FP MAE (D-212, 2025 only)
gain +0.053 MAE, 372 rows, 2 wk [−0.022,+0.130]; backtest +0.008 · not promoted
R-02 · promoted feature lf_garbage_time_clock_kill_l3 through the served training path
playgrain loop: +0.000568 log-loss delta (play grain, not FP)
gain +0.048 MAE, 372 rows, 2 wk [−0.016,+0.116]; backtest −0.003 · not promoted

Σ hyp −0.38 FP MAE (4 rows) · Σ actual no live A/B

Hypotheses: docs/hypotheses.json · review incl. 9 L-07 · fixes: CHANGES-PROPOSED.md

Capacity

Weekly model allowance

Account-wide · projected from the last 24h
Claude39% remainingProjected out Sep 30 · ~12 AM MTRead Sep 27 · 2:17 PM MTHow estimated

16 quota points used over 23.8h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 9:00 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 0

Account-wide allowance; includes work outside Playerweek.

Codex61% remainingProjected out Sep 29 · ~5 AM MTRead Sep 27 · 2:27 PM MTHow estimated

38 quota points used over 24.0h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 3 · 12:15 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 0

Account-wide Codex allowance. Direct account-status read; no model request.

Antigravity · Gemini models81.8% remainingInsufficient history for forecastRead Sep 27 · 2:27 PM MTHow estimated

Needs two readings at least 30 minutes apart in this reset window.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 7:29 PM MT.

Logged scheduled starts, last 24h: 32

Shared by Gemini Flash and Pro in Antigravity. Local scheduled starts also have a 15-minute cooldown. Gemini app/web usage is unknown here.

Antigravity · Claude and GPT models96.9% remainingNo measurable usage increaseRead Sep 27 · 2:27 PM MTHow estimated

0 quota points used over 24.0h within the last 24h; pace may change.

Weekly allowance resets Oct 1 · 11:19 PM MT.

Shared by Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet and GPT-OSS in Antigravity; separate from Claude Code and Codex.