In served v1.0hypactual
CARD · served v1.0.1-availability-20260926 (certified)held-out MAE 3.54 [3.47, 3.62] (2024-25, all rostered)
live MAE 3.70 [3.32, 4.09], 423 settled (wk 3, row CI); rookie prior MAE 9.63 (2 settled); K/DEF MAE 5.91 (20 settled); 6,636 rows pending; replay 21,264/21,264 exact + 1,135/1,135 K/DEF+rookie; graded 2026-09-29 08:43 MT
CP-H49 · trailing windows include last game−0.352 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H65 · stop pricing all weeks on wk-1 market−0.063 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H199 · kalman share leak removed+0.040 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H6 · order-independent room sums−0.006 FP MAE
no live A/B
CP-H43 · pass attempts weighted to recent−0.071 att MAE
no live A/B
CP-H47 · DEF events from implied total−0.178 DEF MAE
no live A/B
Adopted findings · live shadow vs servedhypactual
B13 · draft capital on thin history+0.048 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.031 MAE, 174 rows, 3 wk [−0.096,+0.008]; backtest −0.011 · not promoted
B41 · draft + contract on thin history+0.059 pts RMSE vs BASE (thin)
gain −0.025 MAE, 174 rows, 3 wk [−0.074,+0.012]; backtest −0.030 · not promoted
Q-13 · Saturday attention → availability−0.0030 Brier (P(play))
live shadow scores from week 4; backtest +0.0029 · not promoted
Q-14 · fame adds nothing (a null)null: −0.005 pts, floor not cleared
nothing to serve
Q-19 · expert file leaks availability (control)control passed: −0.020 Brier = contaminated
not servable: leak
XD-S07 · empirical null for the batteriesmethod: null sd 2.22 vs 1.00
not a model feature
R-02 · promoted feature lf_garbage_time_clock_kill_l3 through the served training pathplaygrain loop: +0.000568 log-loss delta (play grain, not FP)
gain +0.048 MAE, 372 rows, 2 wk [−0.016,+0.116]; backtest −0.003 · not promoted
H-030 · receiving shares: Poisson + attempts weight (O3 cycle)−0.0242 FP MAE (D-212, 2025 only)
gain +0.034 MAE, 666 rows, 2 wk [−0.030,+0.104]; backtest +0.008 · not promoted