Construction
The machine, and what of it is actually running
11/38 runninglaunchctl answered, not that somebody typed green. Boxes with no job yet are asserted from the handbook's own status matrix, where ACTIVE and INTEGRATED are green, UNDER CONSTRUCTION and IMPLEMENTED/INACTIVE are amber, and UNAVAILABLE is red.Being built right now. If this is not what you want built, this is the page to say so on.
Agreed and waiting. The order is deliberate, not arbitrary.
Finished and verified. The evidence for each one is on Maintenance.
The nine-desk operating model. Gemini's system runs as a challenger, not the spine.
This board is asserted, not measured. It says what is deliberately being built and why. Maintenance reads the machine at render time and will contradict this page whenever the two disagree — which is exactly what it is for.
My Team — what needs fixing
Nine items. 7 open.
The operating rule: The page reads saved products. It does not fit a model, optimize a lineup, derive fantasy scoring, invent missing data, or turn a late observation into a pregame prediction. — v1 handbook §6
So every blank is a MISSING PRODUCT, not a rendering bug. Four items need a producer built through Codex's review path — the publisher seed is held byte-for-byte and the handbook gives root ownership of integration and activation. Two are genuine renderer defects against stated rules, confirmed in the live DOM. One was not a bug at all.
| ID | What is wrong | Where it shows | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 | season_plan is missing NEEDS A PRODUCER. The publisher seed site-products.json is a reviewed artifact held byte-for-byte (sha a9cd7cf38fe1…) and the handbook says root owns integration and activation. Producing season_plan means a new producer through Codex's review path, not an edit here. The computation already exists on the legacy pw refresh path — which §14 forbids running. | Plan value · Remaining points · Projected points rank | needs a producer |
| MT-02 | recommendations is missing NEEDS A PRODUCER. Same boundary as MT-01. The page's behaviour is correct — 'a missing record is not a recommendation to hold' — it just has nothing to read. | This week's decisions | needs a producer |
| MT-03 | comparisons is missing NEEDS A PRODUCER. comparisons requires a same-rules, same-period forecast/actual join that no current producer emits. | Who has been right | needs a producer |
| MT-04 | Yahoo column is empty for every player DIAGNOSED — it is a CAPTURE gap, not a join bug. 'yahoo_points' and 'yahoo_projection' appear ZERO times in the 11.4 MB generation. The column is empty because the number was never captured. Needs a capture producer; fp_league_roster (161 records) is captured, the projections are not. | Head to head · YAHOO column | needs a producer |
| MT-05 | Verify pregame renders as Upcoming, not an observed zero PARTIAL VIOLATION of §9, confirmed in the live DOM. The rule: 'Pregame 0-0 values mean no actual has been observed; they must be displayed as Upcoming, not as an observed zero.' The page shows em-dashes and 'Score state: unknown'. The DANGEROUS half is satisfied — it does not invent a zero. The LABEL half is not — the word 'Upcoming' does not appear anywhere on the page. | ACTUAL · Score state | renderer defect |
| MT-06 | Week 1 still shows the older capture NOT A BUG — verified. Week 1 is correctly labelled 'Older capture' because the fresh roster capture covers weeks 2-18 only; the generation declares this in its own issue log. The page is reporting a true roster-scope fact. | Weeks strip | landed |
| MT-07 | Weeks 15–18 must not imply a fantasy lineup VIOLATION of §7, confirmed in the live DOM. The strip labels weeks 15, 16, 17 and 18 'Active forecast' — identical to weeks 2-14. §7: fantasy opponent rosters, lineup totals and matchup decisions for 15-18 are UNAVAILABLE, and 'every future week needs an explicit forecast_kind and horizon disclosure'. The DATA already distinguishes them (16 records per week for 15-18 against 32 for 1-14); the UI does not. | Week selector | renderer defect |
| MT-08 | Lineup alternative not published NEEDS A PRODUCER. The declared-rule alternative must ship WITH its §9 disclosure ('a saved candidate, not a certified legal Yahoo lineup'), so it is a product with a required caveat, not a toggle. | Your lineup | needs a producer |
| MT-09 | Health feed 404s on the static site app.js polls /data/maintenance-health-live.json every 60s; it was never shipped, so the poll failed silently. Codex's envelope has max_age_seconds=180 — built for the loopback server that regenerates per request, so it cannot work on static hosting. Replaced with a liveness badge that reads the manifest on the same cadence. | liveness | landed |
In flight
working on these now| ID | What | Why | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| C-06 | Wire betting capture Schedule pw odds and pw bets; confirm the ledger records price obtained, not just the pick. | Sean: 'betting gets captured'. Props capture already works -- 1,556 files, 6,212 rows, 10 books. The bet ledger and odds capture are not scheduled. | queued Claude |
| C-10 | Verify a generation flows end to end forecast-refresh is running its first cycle. Watch for a new generation_id on Maintenance, then confirm deploy-generation ships it and the customer page swaps without a reload. | Every piece is now scheduled but no NEW generation has been produced and shipped yet. Until one is, this is wiring, not a working loop. | renderer defect Claude |
Queued
| ID | What | Why | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| C-07 | Build to the Codex operating model Read the nine-desk operating model in full, then sequence it. Not started -- the plumbing comes first. | Sean, 19 Sept: the system Codex defined is the plan of record. | queued Claude |
| C-08 | Gemini system as challenger research/playgrain/ -- play-grain warehouse, transition simulator, air-gapped loop. Built 18-19 Sept. Parked until the POR is moving. | Run in parallel, measured against the POR. Adopted only where it demonstrably beats it. | parked Claude |
Landed
verified| ID | What | Why | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| C-09 | Auto-refresh both sites Customer site: Codex's 60s manifest poll now has a supply. Monitor: polls state.json every 30s and reloads only when generated_at changes, so it never throws away your scroll position to show the same page. | Sean: 'do both urls update without me needing to hit refresh?' The customer app already polled; nothing produced anything new to find, and the monitor had no script at all. | landed Claude · landed 2026-09-19 |
| C-05 | Deploy step for the data generation bin/deploy-generation.sh ships whatever `active` points at, with a no-op guard so an unchanged generation is not re-uploaded every 10 minutes, and it writes the 15 legacy .html keys the edge still had cached. | publish_delivery.py builds a release and flips a symlink. Nothing ships it to Cloudflare, so a fresh generation never reaches the site. | landed Claude · landed 2026-09-19 |
| C-04 | Restart the pipeline Loaded in dependency order: institute.forecast-refresh (4h), ingest-refresh (1h, the job that pulls actuals), deploy-generation (10m), buildsite (10m). publish.sh deliberately left UNLOADED -- it ends in a site-pwa deploy that would revert the Codex site. | 34 of 38 launchd agents are on disk and not loaded. Ingest works when run by hand; nothing runs it. | landed Claude · landed 2026-09-19 |
| C-01 | playerweek.pages.dev serves the Codex site Codex renderer deployed to Cloudflare. app.js and styles.css byte-identical to the chatgpt.site original. Old 15-page site replaced on every route, including the cached ones. | landed Claude · landed 2026-09-19 | |
| C-02 | Build monitor, separate from the customer site playerweek-build.pages.dev. Same design system, one tab per desk, generated from measurement at render time. | landed Claude · landed 2026-09-19 | |
| C-03 | Week 2 actuals into the warehouse pw refresh ingested Thursday's game. player_week 2026 went from 920 rows in 1 week to 1,705 rows across 2. | landed Claude · landed 2026-09-19 |
Plan of record — every named component
From the v1 handbook and the nine-desk operating model, read in full rather than skimmed
93 components across 10 groups. 8 are running, 8 are partial, 77 do not exist. Codex's own status words are kept rather than flattened, because UNAVAILABLE and NOT CERTIFIED mean different things and need different work. Where a component names a launchd job, the state is measured at render time; everything else is Codex's assertion carried over.
This is the gap between the machine that is described and the machine that runs. It is meant to be uncomfortable reading.
Living checklist
v1 handbook §17 — Codex's own states, carried over verbatim
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Original v1 artifact audit | ACCEPTED | Original learned bytes reproduced under the frozen capsule and are serving. |
| Write-once v1 registry and guarded loader | ACTIVE | Release v1.0-20260916, manifest dcf95ac625…; fresh issuance and unattended reuse. |
| Golden W2/W3 numerical replay | PASS | 1,326 players / 54,226 numeric values and 32 games / 256 values match. |
| All-remaining Weeks 2–18 producer | ACTIVE | 11,271 player rows, 256 games, zero player or K/DEF fits. |
| Fantasy opponent products after Week 14 | UNAVAILABLE | Needs source schedule and exact opponent roster receipts. |
| Bench-position DEF roster repair | OPERATING PASS | 162-row roster delivery; no missing bench-defense identity. |
| Phone tracker | ACTIVE | Private URL live; 60-second launchd sync installed. |
| 99.5% service level | OBSERVING, NOT CERTIFIED | Seven-day window immature; availability, freshness and correctness sampled separately. |
| R&D worker prompt audit | REPAIRS INTEGRATED, JOBS PAUSED | Canonical receipt parsing and exact baseline/change bindings integrated; the jobs are paused. |
| Whole-model S/B/Q isolation | NOT CERTIFIED | Needs complete ancestry and intervention controls across all learned and serving paths. |
| Prospective player grading | ACTIVE FRAME, OUTCOMES PENDING | Grade full issued populations only after admitted truth. |
| Autonomous shipper | NOT ACTIVE | Root remains integration and activation owner. |
| Handbook regeneration hook | ACTIVE | Scheduled regeneration; inspect the log for later writes. |
Institute jobs
v1 handbook §14 — a plist in Git does not prove a job is loaded
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| institute.capture | NOT LOADED | hourly · raw qualitative, article and gamebook capture |
| institute.structured | NOT LOADED | every 4h · structured public-source archive |
| institute.forecast-refresh | LOADED | every 4h + Thursday pre-kickoff · snapshot, forecast, validation, prepared site |
| institute.phone-sync | NOT LOADED | every 60s · bounded status to the private tracker |
| institute.tracker-feed | NOT LOADED | continuous · separates provider, collector and content clocks |
| institute.site-service | NOT LOADED | supervised · serves validated assets and saved health |
| institute.report-service | NOT LOADED | supervised · serves report, tracker and handbook |
| institute.service-health | NOT LOADED | every minute · availability, integrity and freshness sampled separately |
| institute.handbook | NOT LOADED | every 5 min · regenerates the canonical handbook HTML |
Six connected levels
v1 handbook §20 — the destination, each with a strong simpler challenger
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Season and organization | UNAVAILABLE | Personnel continuity, coaching regime, development. Challenger: dynamic team strength + persistent roster. |
| Game and environment | UNAVAILABLE | Both teams, venue, officiating, score/time. Challenger: direct margin/total plus market benchmark. |
| Unit and task | UNAVAILABLE | Personnel combinations, protection and route obligations. Challenger: opportunity allocator with interactions. |
| Play and response | UNAVAILABLE | Observable cues, actor-limited information, action policies. Challenger: sequence/count model. |
| Physical event and credit | UNAVAILABLE | One event ledger producing coherent player/team/defense totals. Challenger: direct stat forecasts. |
| Measurement and belief | UNAVAILABLE | Source access, selection, publication and receipt. Challenger: source-aware predictor with deduplication. |
Nine desks
staffing model — one chain of evidence, none edits the model
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Commission & Portfolio | UNAVAILABLE | What the machine is asked for, and what it declines. |
| World Model Lab | UNAVAILABLE | The predictive core. Recommends experiment design. |
| Football Intelligence | UNAVAILABLE | Roles, legal actions, counters, credit conventions. |
| Behavior & Qualitative | UNAVAILABLE | S / B / Q evidence classes kept separately attributable. |
| Data & Provenance | UNAVAILABLE | Origin graph, revision history, permeability trace. |
| Markets & Portfolio | UNAVAILABLE | Price, stake, exposure. Sean taps before money moves. |
| Experience Studio | UNAVAILABLE | What Sean actually sees, against the design system. |
| Operations & Learning | UNAVAILABLE | The loop that improves the machine. |
| Forecast Accuracy Directorate | UNAVAILABLE | Were we right, prospectively and per cohort. |
Resident expertise
v1 handbook §22 — each owes a required artifact before a claim advances
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Data science | UNAVAILABLE | Paired prospective loss, calibration, compute accounting. |
| Statistics and causal inference | UNAVAILABLE | Estimand, causal graph, negative controls, sensitivity. |
| Physics and physiology | UNAVAILABLE | Units, conservation and support checks, uncertainty propagation. |
| Psychology and organizational behavior | UNAVAILABLE | Opportunity-normalized behavioral posterior and rival explanations. |
| Economics and game theory | UNAVAILABLE | Equilibrium and rival policy predictions, intervention tests. |
| Market microstructure | UNAVAILABLE | Executable quote lineage, depth and latency state, settlement. |
| Football tactics | UNAVAILABLE | Event-bound annotation agreement and adversarial counterexamples. |
| Information science | UNAVAILABLE | Origin graph, revision history, permeability trace. |
| Reliability engineering | OBSERVING | Availability, correctness and freshness receipts. Partly real — service-health exists but is not loaded. |
Deep Think supply chain
staffing model — keeps every desk supplied
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Continuous intake | UNAVAILABLE | Everything arriving, before any screening. |
| Flash screening | UNAVAILABLE | Cheap, narrow, numerous — the first rung of the ladder. |
| Gemini 3 Pro graph | UNAVAILABLE | Cross-domain mechanism finding. |
| Parallel explanations | UNAVAILABLE | Rival accounts kept separate rather than averaged. |
| Deep Think research | UNAVAILABLE | The weekly deep synthesis. |
| Desk packets | UNAVAILABLE | What each desk receives, addressed to it. |
| Outcome feedback | UNAVAILABLE | Spend judged by learning, not by volume. |
Governance and decision rights
staffing model — who recommends, who approves, when Sean is involved
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| New hypothesis | UNAVAILABLE | Any research job recommends · Research Director admits · Sean never, for routine admission. |
| Experiment design | UNAVAILABLE | World Model Lab · Independent Replication Scientist · Sean when risk appetite changes. |
| Production code | OBSERVING | Claude-led operators · tests + Codex on high-risk boundaries · Sean on irreversible external consequence. |
| Forecast release | UNAVAILABLE | Forecast council · Deterministic Release Authority · Sean only on a recorded override. |
| Bet placement | UNAVAILABLE | Markets & Portfolio · Sean taps before money moves · ALWAYS. |
| New paid data | UNAVAILABLE | Acquisition & Rights Lead · Sean approves spend and terms · ALWAYS. |
| Visual direction | UNAVAILABLE | Experience Studio · Product Director against the design system. |
| Incident rollback | UNAVAILABLE | SRE · automated safe rollback · Sean on data loss or external lock. |
| Model promotion | UNAVAILABLE | Scientific council · prospective scorecard gate. |
Information gaps to capture now
v1 handbook §23 — a week not captured is gone; these cannot be backfilled
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Full prospective information history | UNAVAILABLE | Every raw revision, first receipt, failure and issuance, so mutation cannot alter an earlier issuance. |
| Event participation and true zeros | UNAVAILABLE | Official gamebook coverage; stop grading only survivors. |
| Multiweek availability and role transitions | UNAVAILABLE | Dated return, designation and roster panels. |
| Unit task combinations | UNAVAILABLE | Dated personnel combinations and public practice descriptions. |
| Joint timing and geometry | UNAVAILABLE | Synchronized full-unit traces with visibility metadata. |
| Untargeted and unused options | UNAVAILABLE | Deterrence and feasible opportunity, not only realized touches. |
| Workload and recovery across tasks | UNAVAILABLE | Load proxies, rest and travel exposure. |
| Directional environment and surface | UNAVAILABLE | Venue, surface, source-time weather and direction. |
| Institution and officiating response | UNAVAILABLE | Crew, rule and context records with observed decisions. |
| Full qualitative context and origin graph | UNAVAILABLE | Complete question and answer, attribution, hedge, revision. |
| Actor exposure and public influence | UNAVAILABLE | Information about football vs information that changes preparation. |
| Executable market and settlement history | UNAVAILABLE | Immutable quoted terms, received prices, settlement revisions. |
| Pipeline observation of its own failures | UNAVAILABLE | Failed requests, skipped issuances, scheduler delays, validation rejections. |
Model ladder and pairings
staffing model — deterministic first, a frontier call matches one of four commissions
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Deterministic first | ACTIVE | Where code can decide exactly, no model votes. Already true across the pipeline. |
| Cheap, narrow, numerous | UNAVAILABLE | Screening and extraction at volume. |
| Daily builders and critics | OBSERVING | Claude and Codex build daily — but not as a scheduled rung with a brief. |
| Four deliberate specialists | UNAVAILABLE | Deep Think, Opus, Sol — a frontier call must match one of four exact commissions. |
| Explore → formalize | UNAVAILABLE | Gemini 3 Pro finds mechanisms; Sol converts them to state, equations, falsifiers. |
| Specify → build | UNAVAILABLE | Sol writes the contract; Sonnet implements and instruments it. |
| Build → attack | UNAVAILABLE | Sonnet builds; Luna searches narrow failures. Many cheap attacks beat one self-review. |
| Quantify → interpret | UNAVAILABLE | Sol computes residuals; Gemini connects patterns to film, language, science. |
| Disagree → decide | UNAVAILABLE | Blind forecasts from provider families; deterministic evidence judges; Fable adjudicates. |
The constitution
staffing model — nine lessons from the METR incident, none built
| Component | State | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Impossible tasks turn into score-gaming | UNAVAILABLE | Record a failed gate as failed. The pressure valve that keeps a bench honest. |
| An unintended cache became government | UNAVAILABLE | Shared state acquires authority nobody granted it. |
| 'The board approved it' replaced authorization | UNAVAILABLE | A root of trust, not a consensus. |
| Tool output and transcripts are not ground truth | UNAVAILABLE | Verify against the real thing, not the report of it. |
| Self-invented signatures lacked a root of trust | UNAVAILABLE | Identity must be issued, not asserted. |
| Shared artifacts produced real breakthroughs | UNAVAILABLE | The upside of the same mechanism — keep it, govern it. |
| Agents noticed danger and did not tell humans | UNAVAILABLE | An escalation path that is used, not just present. |
| AI summaries inherit the subject's frame | UNAVAILABLE | The reviewer adopts the reviewed agent's perspective. |
| Agents risked their own runs for the collective | UNAVAILABLE | Pay for negative results and shared instrumentation. |